On AGI Timelines

Oct 27 2025

A lot of people like to make predictions on when AGI will arrive. These predictions vary a lot between individuals. However, I believe that any prediction where actual concrete numbers are presented are injudicious.

The only correct answer to this question is "We have no idea". It's clear that we will get there eventually, if you believe there is nothing special about the brain and that it's just computation. The reason for this is that nobody has an actual plan to get to AGI (let alone an agreed upon definition). There are many unknowns to how the cortical brain works, read any neuroscience paper and you'll realise how many moving parts there are and how much we are yet to figure out. Despite research on AI interpretability and general neuroscience, we still don't understand the real fabric of intelligence, So how can people make such predictions?

Imagine asking a Physicist how long it will take to build fusion reactors that generate sustained net-positive energy. I mean we know it's possible, the Sun does it, but we don't know how to get there ourselves. Despite working on it for years, we're still not there. If the Physicist told you "5 years", but gave you no path on how they were planning to get there, you might feel a bit apprehensive on believing them.

Now imagine asking an aerospace engineer how long it will take to get a human on Mars. We've never done it, but we've landed on the Moon and all the required technology is available. Here, a plan can be created, we can understand how long it will take to plan it, procure the materials, develop technology, test it, which cycle in Mars' orbit we will likely hit. The engineer's prediction will still be off, but it'll be pretty accurate given a concrete plan and experience on how long each task usually takes. And you can have much more faith in their prediction given the breakout of how to get there and how long each stage will take.

Let's both stop making such baseless predictions and challenge those who still do. Next time an AI expert tells you their predicted timeline, ask them what their plan is to get to AGI. If they don't give you a concrete plan and solid evidence why that plan leads to intelligence, ignore them. There is a lot of hype in the space of AI lately - given there are great incentives to make people believe we are close to AGI. I'm not here for the hype, I'm here for the long-haul, to truly understand the nature of intelligence. I have some vague notion of how we can get there, but I still have no clue when that will happen.